With the halving simply six days abroad, the crypto customs is collectively holding on to their proverbial hats and counting downwards the days until the historic event takes place. Looking back, it'due south quite amazing to encounter what has been accomplished in the past four years since the last halving and how much the industry has matured.

Regulation has taken behemothic leaps, venues have become more sophisticated and transparent, and institutions accept begun to dip their toes in the once murky waters of crypto. Along with a reduced supply, all the conditions are perfectly aligned for a postal service-halving balderdash run, and that is exactly what many crypto enthusiasts are expecting.

1 noticeable proponent of such a result for the halving is PlanB, the anonymous analyst behind the famous stock-to-flow model. Recently tweeting about the event, PlanB expects the Bitcoin toll to rising tenfold in the side by side two years, thus proving that his model can indeed predict the long-term direction of BTC's price.

Forget the hype, hither'south the information

With the toll of Bitcoin rallying alee of the halving and the crypto community being generally optimistic about the upcoming event, others are taking a more sober opinion on the price action post-obit the halving, given all the hype surrounding the specific engagement being an event where people "buy the rumor and sell the news."

Equally the cost rises in the days leading to the halving, information technology'south possible that traders volition accept profits immediately after the outcome. Then what to make of all this? Supply and need is just ane of the things to have into account, and it is, of course, the colonnade on which long-term valuation stands, but curt-term cost volatility does non adhere to that logic, as fear, greed and other man-made factors come into play.

Derivatives information can be extremely insightful, as more complex instruments such every bit options contracts produce datasets that simply practise not exist in the spot markets. As such, here is a closer look at the Bitcoin options data to shed some low-cal on the state of affairs.

Being a highly complex marketplace, Bitcoin options market participants are often considered the most knowledgeable players, and the data sets produced by this circuitous market can shed a light on where these experienced traders recollect the price is headed post-halving.

Implied volatility: Tables are turning?

For case, the implied volatility metric tin can tell a lot virtually the expected price of Bitcoin within the options market. When there is a college premium for a certain strike price on an options contract, it means in that location is greater demand for these contracts. Data from the largest options market, Deribit, shows that options market players think the downside risk is higher than the potential upside.

BTC May 29 expiry volatility skew

Yet, this tin can also mean that traders are protecting their long positions on spot markets, including miners, who are inherently long on Bitcoin. Matt D'Souza, CEO of Blockware mining, told Cointelegraph:

"If Bitcoin is farther adopted in, mining volition likely be more commoditized and institutionalized which volition reduce volatility in the price of Bitcoin. Nowadays commodities like gilt, oil or soybeans have big, institutional suppliers (Bitcoin miners are the nowadays suppliers). In mature commodities like oil and gold these suppliers hedge their supplier which reduces volatility. This is just starting with Bitcoin. CME futures and options, Bakkt etc. and so Bitcoin will mature and volatility will get reduced especially as more institutional players control the supply."

Looking at the historical information can give an even better insight of how the sentiment is changing with fourth dimension. The chart below shows that puts are more expensive than calls, which can mean the market place thinks the security has a greater chance of falling than it does of rise. However, the trend is starting to favor calls (the upside), so it's of import to keep an centre on how this trend progresses.

BTC 25-day skew

According to James Li, analyst at CryptoCompare, the current information favors a cautious outlook on Bitcoin, but that is changing apace. He told Cointelegraph:

"With the contempo rally, about terms expiries saw implied volatility picked up, whilst longer term expiries dropped. The 15th May contracts which expire right after the halving suggest prices can get both ways, with 25-delta but skewed very slightly to the put side, which means the demand is somewhat stronger on the downside. Longer term expiries, nevertheless, remain skewed on the put side only if we see persistent rallies, the sentiment tin can flip to the other side."

Put-call ratio: Bullish or surly?

Another metric to continue an heart on in the Bitcoin options market place is the put-telephone call ratio, which has been increasing, rising from 0.62 to 0.lxx in the concluding calendar week. While a rising put-call ratio tin be looked at as a bearish sign at first glance, it may also signal to a risk-averse market. Bitcoin trader and popular YouTuber Tone Vays told Cointelegraph:

"I remember the majority of the people are wrong. A rising put/call ratio should be bullish for BTC price as most of those puts will expire worthless. Puts are besides a adept hedging (aka insurance) instrument so people that are hodling Bitcoin might be scared that mining will be in trouble and they are buying puts to protect their positions."

BTC put-call ratio

In fact, many advanced traders shared the same perspective equally Vays, especially if the ratio goes too far in either direction. D'Souza, who is also a hedge fund director at Blockchain Opportunity Fund, shared a similar outlook on options, telling Cointelegraph:

"A rising put to phone call means many investors are buying downside protection. I love it equally a contrarian indicator. So when put/call gets extreme or greater than usual, I actually become bullish considering I take a contrarian position. I like to do the opposite of the herd. This is most importantly, take the other side for the most part when the ratios go too far in either direction."

The elephant in the room

Although the options market and other metrics can requite insight into what traders and other market players expect the BTC price to do, its interpretations should always be taken with a grain of salt. Yet, as Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a new asset class, its "classical" volatility and unpredictability will continue to fade abroad.

Related: Institutional Investment Builds in Q1 2022, Sentiment Toward Crypto Funds Irresolute

In the concurrently, it's too important to have the "elephant in the room" into consideration — that is, the COVID-19 pandemic and the massive wave of unemployment that has come with it. With this in heed, it's possible that many will be hoping to greenbacks out after the halving in search of safe haven assets.